Simpson Gets Palmer Into Day

Golf Betting Lines

Scottsdale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Palmer fired a seven-under 65 Thursday to grab a one-stroke lead with the first round of the Phoenix Open suspended due to darkness. Palmer earned his third PGA Tour title at the 2010 Sony Open. However, he missed the cut at this event last year.

 

They were joined there by Bubba Watson, Spencer Levin and Jason Dufner. Watson and Levin both finished 15 holes, while Dufner is through 13.

 

The 35-year-old dropped his approach within 10 feet at the 18th and converted that birdie effort to get within two of Simpson.

 

Palmer made it two in a row with a birdie on the first. A 13-foot birdie putt on the fourth gave Palmer a share of the lead. He followed with a 12-footer for birdie on five and made it three in a row with a 10-foot birdie effort on the No. 6.

 

"I had two great days preparing on Tuesday and Wednesday," said Palmer, who missed the cut in his first two events this year. "Getting the old putter back out, and getting the old feelings I've had in the past, the way the swing feels and the way the body feels, it was set up for a good day today."

 

Around the turn, Simpson sank a 12-footer for birdie on one and moved atop the leaderboard as he stuffed his approach inside a foot on the second.

 

"I really didn't feel like I hit a bad shot. I hit a chip that released a lot more than I thought it would, but other than that it was solid," Simpson said. "I think the thing that kind of held me in there all day was my putting. I made a bunch of putts, so I'm excited about that."

 

NOTES: This event needed a Monday finish last year after frost delays pushed everything back...Defending champion Mark Wilson is tied for 50th at minus- one...Former British Open champion Stewart Cink struggled to seven bogeys, three double-bogeys and a birdie in a round of 12-over 83...Forty-two of the 132 players that started did not finish their rounds.

 

Doha, Qatar (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The heavy wind that sent scores soaring in round one, became too much in round two. The second round of the Qatar Masters was suspended on Friday due to high winds and unplayable conditions at Doha Golf Club. Officials shortened the championship to 54 holes.

 

John Daly is the leader at five-under par, although the two-time major winner, who has no status on the PGA Tour and indicated on Thursday he will focus on the European Tour this year. did not hit a shot on Friday.

 

"I hope tomorrow I can take advantage of the remaining 10 holes I have," said Fernandez-Castano. "I didn't have any balls moving, but certain shots you could hardly keep balanced. Being selfish I'm quite happy play was called off."

 

World No. 3 Lee Westwood is two-over on Friday and fell to one-over par for the championship. Martin Kaymer, the No. 4 player in the world, is one-under par and didn't strike a shot.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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